11/19/19: CHILE: Protests
This Week Amid Continued Unrest (Update)
Anti-government activists have called for
‘countrywide’ protests today and Wednesday, November 20. This, despite the
government announcing last week that it plans to draft a new constitution, a
key demand of activists. Protesters have continued to call for President
Sebastian Pinera to resign, which he is unlikely to do. Demonstrations over the
past couple weeks have not caused widespread travel disruption in Santiago, but
some looting and acts of vandalism at the edges of gatherings remain likely.
Monday, November 18, marked one month since demonstrations began.
In Santiago, organizers announced plans to
meet at Plaza Italia at 5:30 p.m., but activists will probably also gather in
the Cisterna, San Miguel, and Providencia suburbs. Organizers called for
gatherings in ‘main squares in the country’ without naming specific locations
and protesters are likely to congregate in most cities. We anticipate that tens
of thousands of people will participate in protests in Santiago, and several
thousands in other cities, as has been the case in the past few days.
Violent clashes between protesters and
security forces at protests in major cities are likely to recur in the coming
days, with protesters attacking security forces with rocks and similar
projectiles the most probable trigger. The police in Santiago on Saturday,
November 16, used water cannons, tear gas, and baton rounds to disperse
protesters in Plaza Italia, Cisterna, San Miguel, and Providencia. They used
the same tactics against protesters in Valparaiso, Iquique, and Puerto Montt.
Acts of looting and vandalism have decreased since protests and accompanying
unrest began one month ago. We have seen only a few reports of looting and vandalism
in Santiago in the past week. But those seem to have been opportunistic and we
have not seen any calls by activists to target specific companies or sectors.
Still, some looting and acts of vandalism against private and public property
at the edges of protests remain likely, particularly in Santiago near Plaza
Italia and along the Alameda.
There are few signs that protests will end
anytime soon. The government plans to hold a plebiscite on the details of the
constitutional assembly, but not before April 2020. This means that activists
are likely to try and maintain pressure until then to ensure that the vote is
held. President Pinera is also unlikely to resign, mainly because he still
seems to have the support of his party and the security forces. Losing his
party’s support or signs that security forces are unable or unwilling to cope
with protests, would be clear triggers for his resignation. But we assess that
both developments are unlikely for now. (Risk Advisory)
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